Capital Frenzy and Turmoil Under the DeepSeek Boom
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The recent buzz surrounding DeepSeek during the Chinese New Year celebrations has generated feverish interest across global capital marketsThe explosive growth in the DeepSeek index reflects an overwhelming enthusiasm among investors, reminiscent of a wildfire rapidly spreading through parched terrain.
According to Wind data, just before the Lunar New Year holiday, DeepSeek's index soared by 10.9%, and in the two trading days following the festival, it experienced further gains of 13.09% and 6.09%, showcasing the strong momentum that the platform has amassed.
On the front of concept stocks associated with DeepSeek, as of February 6, within the 39 component stocks listed on the Wind DeepSeek index, an impressive 12 stocks reached their daily limit-ups, with four of them achieving the maximum 20% capDaily Interaction (300766.SZ) was particularly noteworthy, recording three consecutive days of 20% limit-upsOther notable names like QCloud Technology-U (688316.SH), Anheng Information (688023.SH), and Yoke Technology (688158.SH) also joined the ranks with two consecutive days of similar performance.
Interestingly, many of these companies have been diligent in clarifying or denying associations with DeepSeek that have been floated in various rumorsHowever, this barrage of speculation seems inadequate to calm the rampant enthusiasm seen in the secondary market.
When viewing this situation from the lens of the industry's supply chain, it becomes evident that an attempt to build a solid investment case centered around the DeepSeek theme may be met with challenges akin to planting flowers without knowing where they would flourish.
Nevertheless, as some cloud computing firms recently pivoted towards DeepSeek, investment perceivers have sensed a clearer pathway emergingFollowing the massive rise in DeepSeek's visibility, a plethora of leading domestic cloud service providers hastily announced their intention to integrate the DeepSeek model
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Looking ahead, the impediments associated with local deployment of open-source models are expected to diminish, driving down usage costs and potentially rewarding several players in the ecosystem, including cloud services providers, equipment manufacturers in the supply chain, and developers of communication chips.
In light of DeepSeek's rise to prominence, Zhejiang Securities has compiled a list of 20 'DeepSeek' concept stocks from an investment theme perspective, drawing upon their models, applications, and equity relations.
It's worth noting that this stock pool solely serves as a guideline for stock selection and does not signify a recommendation for these specific stocks, according to their research report.
The market has notably zeroed in on companies like Daily Interaction, Zhejiang Dongfang, Parallel Technology, and Huajin Capital, all present on the listYet, recent reports have indicated that these firms are refuting any significant impact DeepSeek may have on their business performance.
As a primary player linked to DeepSeek, Daily Interaction has surfaced as a leading concept stockHowever, recent communications from the company clarified that, upon verification, a key shareholder from the associated company Zhejiang Jiuzhang Asset Management, formerly among Daily Interaction's founding team, does not equate to any direct involvementOn the disclosure date, Daily Interaction had no equity holds in DeepSeek or its partner Huanfang Technology.
The largest confusion, however, arose from Zhejiang Dongfang, which issued a clarification stating that businesses under its management, such as Beijing Deep Search Technology Co. and Beijing Jiuzhang Yunjin Technology Co., share similar names with DeepSeek but have no actual equity relationshipFurthermore, the private equity funds managed by the company have not made any direct or indirect investments into DeepSeek.
While some firms have confirmed ongoing strategic developments concerning DeepSeek, they made it clear that there would be no short-term impact on their business performance.
After the remarkable climb on February 6, Yoke Technology announced that they have been aligning all models with DeepSeek but warned that any contributions to future company performances remain highly uncertain
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Similarly, Anheng Information pointed out that their products built upon the DeepSeek model's capabilities are dependent on various factors, including product development and the progress of real-world applications, underscoring the uncertainties of their business trajectories.
On the flip side, a closer look reveals that the meteoric rise of DeepSeek has created substantial strain on its servicesUsers have reported severe slowdowns across DeepSeek’s app, website, and API services, leading to numerous complaints about server overloads and an inability to obtain results effectively.
The first working day after the New Year holiday saw the DeepSeek platform increasingly congested, with frustrated users flooding the official discussion groups without receiving satisfactory responses to resolve their issues.
As of the evening of February 6, DeepSeek announced a suspension of API service recharges, indicated by a grayed-out button rendering it unusableThe official statement attributed this action to 'current server resource tensions' and emphasized their intention to avoid business disruptions for users.
In response to DeepSeek's congestion, major cloud service providers have began prioritizing their platforms by offering access to the DeepSeek open-source models, creating a strategic outlet for potential user traffic stemming from official platform clogs.
On February 2, Tencent Cloud declared that their high-performance application service HAI now supports one-click deployment of DeepSeek-R1. This was swiftly followed by another announcement on February 4, revealing the listing of the DeepSeek series models on Tencent's cloud platform.
In parallel movements, since the beginning of February, cloud service giants like ByteDance’s Volcano Engine, Baidu Intelligent Cloud, Alibaba Cloud’s PAI Model Gallery, and Huawei’s Ascend cloud services have rolled out based on their cloud computing services, offering direct access to DeepSeek functionality.
Notably, several cloud platforms are drawing in users by offering promotional access to DeepSeek on a limited-time basis, helping shift traffic towards their services.
However, despite these competitive offerings, many DeepSeek users are still keenly searching for the ‘full-blood version’ of the DeepSeek-R1 model as deployed by larger enterprises, highlighting the gap between demand and available services.
From an industrial viewpoint, while the pre-training costs associated with DeepSeek are relatively low, the application phase requires extensive computational resources for practical deployment.
And given that Huanfang, the issuer of DeepSeek, has not sought external financing, there are poignant limitations on the computational configurations needed to support its extensive user base—making the influx of users towards various cloud computing platforms an unavoidable trend.
Beyond the scope of cloud computing service providers, different hardware and component suppliers, particularly in the optical module domain, are well-positioned to benefit from this shift.
Recent insights from TrendForce lifted the lid on the reality that while the DeepSeek models drive down AI training costs, their affordability is poised to broaden application scenarios dramatically, thus spurring an increase in global data center setups.
Moreover, optical transceiver modules—integral for interconnecting data centers—are likely to thrive amidst the escalating demand for high-speed data transfer
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